937
FXUS62 KTBW 220716
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
316 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- DRIER AIR ALOFT TODAY WILL LEAD TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
RAIN EXPECTED. WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE GULF IN THE MORNING COULD DRIFT CLOSE TO SHORE. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL LIKELY BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE INLAND AND FURTHER EAST. THE SAME PATTERN
PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY, WITH THE ONLY CAVEAT BEING A LITTLE EXTRA
MOISTURE THANKS TO A BOUNDARY THAT WILL DRIFT OVER NORTH FLORIDA.
THE BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GULF
WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NATURE
COAST. MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERIOR WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT, THOUGH BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS.
A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
FLOW TRANSITIONING MORE SOUTHEAST. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO REBOUND WEDNESDAY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON THAT
COULD IMPACT TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
MOSTLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE WEST, SOUTHWEST MAINLY
UNDER 10 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 79 89 79 / 10 20 50 10
FMY 93 78 94 78 / 20 0 20 10
GIF 95 75 93 75 / 20 10 40 10
SRQ 92 78 90 77 / 10 10 30 10
BKV 92 73 90 73 / 20 20 50 10
SPG 90 80 89 80 / 10 20 50 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page