422
FXUS62 KTBW 221829
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
229 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
- ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
GULF SUNDAY MORNING THAT MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
DISCUSSION (INCLUDING MODIFIED PREVIOUS)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT MOST OTHER CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE NATURE COAST REGION
AND THE INTERIOR AND THIS GENERAL TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SAME PATTERN PERSISTS INTO
SUNDAY, WITH THE ONLY CAVEAT BEING A LITTLE EXTRA MOISTURE THANKS
TO A BOUNDARY THAT WILL DRIFT OVER NORTH FLORIDA. THE BOUNDARY
WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GULF WITH SOME
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE NATURE COAST.
MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERIOR WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT, THOUGH BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS.
A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
FLOW TRANSITIONING MORE SOUTHEAST. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE
BEGINS TO REBOUND WEDNESDAY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MOST STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
GULF NEAR THE TAMPA BAY REGION AND THESE COULD BRIEFLY BE NEAR
THOSE SITES, THOUGH IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN LOW. A SIMILIAR PATTERN
IS FORECAST FOR TOMORROW WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE MORNING NEAR
THE COAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 80 90 78 92 / 20 50 10 20
FMY 79 94 78 95 / 0 20 10 30
GIF 75 95 74 96 / 10 30 10 20
SRQ 78 91 77 92 / 10 30 10 20
BKV 74 91 73 94 / 20 60 10 30
SPG 80 89 79 91 / 20 40 10 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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