496
FXUS62 KTBW 222340
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
740 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
- ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
GULF SUNDAY MORNING THAT MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
IT HAS BEEN A RELATIVELY QUIET AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS. THE HIGHEST OBSERVED WINDS WERE 41 MPH AT WINTER HAVEN THIS
AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE HIGHEST WINDS WERE AROUND 20-25 MPH IN STORMS.
THE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE NATURE
COAST, EASTERN GULF WATERS AND EASTERN POLK, BUT LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE HAS THINGS QUIETING DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WITH CONTINUED WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW, SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WATERS EARLY MORNING, MOVING ALONG THE COAST BY MID-
MORNING AND THEN FARTHER INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD FOR NOW WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND ONSHORE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE
ALONG THE COAST BY MID-MORNING, MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. WILL
COVER THIS WITH VCTS STARTING AFTER 14Z FOR TPA/PIE/SRQ AND AFTER
17Z FOR LAL. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN LOW FOR PGD/FMY/RSW, SO
WILL KEEP THEM RAIN-FREE FOR NOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 80 90 78 92 / 20 50 10 20
FMY 79 94 78 95 / 0 20 10 30
GIF 75 95 74 96 / 10 30 10 20
SRQ 78 91 77 92 / 10 30 10 20
BKV 74 91 73 94 / 20 60 10 30
SPG 80 89 79 91 / 20 40 10 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...HURT
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