344
FXUS62 KTBW 230712
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
312 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
- ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
GULF THIS MORNING THAT MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE COAST BEFORE MOVING FURTHER INLAND
THROUGH THE DAY. MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SWFL WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH, THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. MORE MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA MONDAY LIMITING RAIN
CHANCES FURTHER. HOWEVER BY MID WEEK A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ADDING MORE MOISTURE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE RAIN CHANCES. TYPICAL
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS LIKE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND
HUMID, THOUGH BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
ONSHORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY FAVORING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY MOVING INLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF SWFL TERMINALS.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION NEAR OR
AT TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
ONSHORE AND INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AWAY FROM ANY SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 78 91 78 / 50 10 20 10
FMY 94 78 94 78 / 10 10 30 10
GIF 93 74 95 75 / 30 10 20 10
SRQ 90 77 92 77 / 30 10 10 10
BKV 90 72 93 72 / 60 10 30 10
SPG 88 79 90 79 / 50 10 20 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING
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