475
FXUS62 KTBW 231200
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
- ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE GULF MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND THEN SHIFTING
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND NATURE COAST
THIS MORNING WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE, PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND
2 INCHES, RESIDES. FURTHER SOUTH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL SHIFT INLAND AND
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF
TODAY, OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT TPA, PIE, SRQ, AND
LAL THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON CAUSING MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE COAST BEFORE MOVING FURTHER INLAND
THROUGH THE DAY. MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVER SWFL WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH, THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. MORE MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA MONDAY LIMITING RAIN
CHANCES FURTHER. HOWEVER BY MID WEEK A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ADDING MORE MOISTURE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE RAIN CHANCES. TYPICAL
THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS LIKE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT AND
HUMID, THOUGH BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE GULF THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
ONSHORE AND INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AWAY FROM ANY SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 78 91 78 / 50 10 20 10
FMY 94 78 94 78 / 20 10 30 10
GIF 93 74 95 75 / 40 10 20 10
SRQ 90 77 92 77 / 20 10 10 10
BKV 90 72 93 72 / 60 10 30 10
SPG 88 79 90 79 / 50 10 20 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...CARLISLE
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