844
FXUS62 KTBW 231850
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
250 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL MOVE ONSHORE
EACH MORNING AND THEN SHIFT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP DURING MIDWEEK WITH A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ONSHORE EACH MORNING AND THEN SHIFT INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DURING MIDWEEK THE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RETURN WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT
WEEKEND THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ALLOWING FOR A MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY FLOW TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT TPA, PIE, LAL,
AND SRQ THROUGH ABOUT 21Z WITH MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY DURING MIDWEEK AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AS
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KNOTS, EXCEPT GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
15 MPH, EXCEPT GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 79 91 79 91 / 10 30 10 20
FMY 77 95 78 95 / 10 20 10 20
GIF 74 95 75 95 / 10 30 10 30
SRQ 78 92 78 92 / 10 20 10 20
BKV 73 93 73 92 / 10 30 10 40
SPG 79 90 79 90 / 10 20 10 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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