981
FXUS62 KTBW 241215
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
815 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL MOVE ONSHORE
EACH MORNING AND THEN SHIFT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP DURING MIDWEEK WITH A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TODAY AND TOMORROW AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE STAYS PARKED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FAVOR LATE NIGHT/
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF AND MOVING
ONSHORE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH FURTHER INLAND BY THE
AFTERNOON. THOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT TODAY MAY LIMIT RAIN COVERAGE,
KEEPING SHOWERS MORE ISOLATED OR SCATTERED.
BY MIDWEEK, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTH, BRINGING LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AS DEEP
MOISTURE RETURNS, LEADING TO MORE SCATTERED AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE MOVES NORTH OF THE
AREA AND THE PATTERN BECOMES A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH
EASTERLY FLOW FAVORING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 814 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY WILL KEEP MOST OF US DRY WITH JUST SOME
ISOLATED STORMS AROUND TPA AND LAL. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LESS THAN 15 KTS. THE ONE CONCERN EACH DAY WILL
BE SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS, LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS AS
WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RH VALUES
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 79 90 77 / 40 10 20 10
FMY 94 77 95 77 / 20 10 20 20
GIF 94 75 94 75 / 30 10 40 10
SRQ 91 78 92 76 / 30 10 10 10
BKV 92 73 91 72 / 40 20 40 10
SPG 89 79 90 79 / 30 10 20 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
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