297
FXUS62 KTBW 241747
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
147 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL MOVE ONSHORE
EACH MORNING AND THEN SHIFT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP DURING MIDWEEK WITH A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY BUT THE BIG DIFFERENCE
TODAY IS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. LOOKING AT THE MORNING SOUNDING WE
CAME IN AT 2.2 YESTERDAY AND TODAY WE ARE SEEING 1.9. THIS DRIER AIR
ALOFT IN HELPING TO KEEP THE MORNING SHOWERS AT BAY TODAY. WE WILL
SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MOST SHOULD STAY DRY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE SAME PATTERN FOR OUR
TUESDAY.
HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY OUR PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE AS THE RIDGE LIFTS
SLIGHTLY NORTH. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MID LEVEL AND
SWITCH OUR FLOW MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH. TECHNICALLY THIS BRING
US INTO A REGIME 4 HOWEVER WE ARE NOT TRULY SEEING A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. WITH WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS WILL
KEEP A MORE UNIFORM SCATTERED STORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE STATE.
THIS PATTERN WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY RIDING SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL BRING
US BACK INTO A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME THAT THAT
WILL FAVOR STORM ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY WILL KEEP MOST OF US DRY WITH JUST SOME
ISOLATED STORMS AROUND TPA, PIE AND LAL. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WINDS IN THE GULF WILL STAY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WIND DIRECTION WILL STAY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
DRIER AIR TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES LOWER
BEFORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS BRINING SCATTERED STORMS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 79 90 77 / 40 10 30 10
FMY 94 77 95 77 / 20 10 30 20
GIF 94 75 94 75 / 30 10 30 20
SRQ 91 78 92 76 / 40 10 20 10
BKV 92 73 91 72 / 40 20 50 10
SPG 89 79 90 79 / 40 10 20 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
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