133
FXUS62 KTBW 250716
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
316 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS, A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN US. AT THE SURFACE, THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEK, WHILE A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOLDS NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR
DEEP MOISTURE BUILDING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR TODAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AND
I-4 CORRIDOR SOUTH, WITH MORE NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE
NATURE COAST COUNTIES TO THE NORTH. UNDER THE INCREASING MOISTURE
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, RAIN COVERAGE WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH THIS RELATIVELY WET
PATTERN FORECAST TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR
THE WEST COAST, BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON, AND COULD IMPACT AREA TERMINALS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
AROUND 02Z AS STORMS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
RIDGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SETUP GENERALLY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS, AND MORE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO THE NORTH. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH DAILY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND ROUGHS SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY,
LEADING TO INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 77 91 77 / 40 10 40 20
FMY 95 77 93 76 / 20 10 70 50
GIF 94 74 94 74 / 30 20 70 30
SRQ 92 76 92 76 / 20 10 40 30
BKV 91 72 92 71 / 50 10 50 20
SPG 90 78 91 78 / 30 0 30 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLEMING
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