439
FXUS62 KTBW 251851
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
251 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TODAY HELPED TO BRING SOME SHOWERS ALONG OUR
COASTAL AREAS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAS PUSHED MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF I-4
OVER TO THE OTHER SIDE OF THE STATE. WHILE SOUTH OF I-4 WE ARE
SEEING DRIER AIR WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING.
TRENDS START TO CHANGE TOMORROW AS WE SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING MOISTURE BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AND HELP TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. DUE TO THE MAINLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW WE WILL NOT SEE THE STORMS FAVOR ONE COAST OVER THE AREA.
AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE PUSHES NORTH BRINGING US INTO A
MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING MORE
FAVORABLE SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA EACH DAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 SHOULD BE DONE FOR THE
DAY AS DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY COMING OUT OF THE
SOUTHER. BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
MOISTURE RETURNS TOMORROW BRINGING HIGHER STORM CHANCES BACK
INTO THE FORECAST. NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 77 92 77 / 30 10 30 20
FMY 95 77 94 76 / 20 20 70 40
GIF 94 74 95 74 / 30 20 60 50
SRQ 92 76 93 75 / 10 10 30 30
BKV 91 72 93 72 / 60 10 30 10
SPG 90 78 91 77 / 20 10 20 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
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