991
FXUS62 KTBW 252337
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
737 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE TOMORROW, WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW FAVORING AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
- A CLASSIC SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS BY THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND FL WEST COAST AS A SOUTHEAST FLOW LOCKS IN.
HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SWFL AND THE CENTRAL INTERIOR.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING NOW WANING, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SUBSIDE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WHILE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OVER GULF WATERS OVERNIGHT, THE LIGHT FLOW
SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OFFSHORE IF IT
DOES INDEED FORM. OVERALL, A QUIET NIGHT IS STILL ANTICIPATED OVER
LAND.
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE TODAY HELPED TO BRING SOME SHOWERS ALONG OUR
COASTAL AREAS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER
THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAS PUSHED MUCH OF THE PRECIP NORTH OF I-4
OVER TO THE OTHER SIDE OF THE STATE. WHILE SOUTH OF I-4 WE ARE
SEEING DRIER AIR WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING.
TRENDS START TO CHANGE TOMORROW AS WE SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING MOISTURE BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS AND HELP TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. DUE TO THE MAINLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW WE WILL NOT SEE THE STORMS FAVOR ONE COAST OVER THE AREA.
AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE PUSHES NORTH BRINGING US INTO A
MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING MORE
FAVORABLE SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA EACH DAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
WHILE A COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF RSW AND FMY,
THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. VFR THEN PREVAILS
AT ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AS DRY, STABLE CONDITIONS SETTLE IN. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY, AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. THE GREATEST
CHANCES RESIDE OVER SWFL AND THE INTERIOR DURING THE 20Z TO 23Z TIME-
FRAME. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS; BUT IF
STORMS FORM, THEY ARE LIKELY TO DO SO SLIGHTLY EARLIER IN THE
DAY. SRQ IS THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION, WITH THE LOWEST PROBABILITY AND
A LATER TIME-FRAME THAT ALIGNS BETTER WITH SWFL TERMINALS. TAFS
CURRENTLY REFLECT THE WINDOWS AND OVERALL CONFIDENCE AT EACH
TERMINAL WHEN THE THREAT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT ALL TERMINALS RETURNS FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A CLASSIC SUMMERTIME SETUP SETTLES
IN WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS EACH DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, FAVORING MAINLY SOUTHEAST
WINDS IN THE MORNING, VEERING MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
IN THE AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING FROM
THURSDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE OFF THE FL WEST COAST AND INTO ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY HOLD AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS, THESE DAILY THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026
MOISTURE RETURNS TOMORROW BRINGING HIGHER STORM CHANCES BACK
INTO THE FORECAST. NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 92 77 91 / 10 30 20 70
FMY 77 94 76 93 / 20 70 40 80
GIF 74 95 74 94 / 20 60 50 70
SRQ 76 93 75 92 / 10 30 30 60
BKV 72 93 72 92 / 10 30 10 70
SPG 78 91 77 90 / 10 20 30 60
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
KEY MESSAGES/UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...FLANNERY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHIVELEY
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