445
FXUS62 KTBW 261231
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
831 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A LARGE RIDGE PATTERN CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN US WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, HOLDING A BROAD TROUGH
IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US TO THE NORTH OF FLORIDA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A FAIRLY STAGNANT PATTERN THROUGH THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK, WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE ATLANTIC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA, THEN FINALLY LIFTING NORTH
DURING THE WEEKEND. UNDER THIS PATTERN, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RANGE
FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
PULLING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND
RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY. UNDER THE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW, SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS LAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
BY SATURDAY, AS THE SURFACE RIDGE LIFTS NORTH, THE SURFACE FLOW
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN DEEP MOISTURE TO THE
AREA, RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
DAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 828 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WE ARE SEEING MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TODAY
WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OUR WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCES IN
SW FLORIDA AND IN THE INTERIOR. VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS BELOW 10
KNOTS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE RIDGING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE LIFTING
NORTH DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL FAVOR GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY, BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BY SUNDAY.
WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE, WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 77 90 77 / 30 20 60 20
FMY 94 76 92 76 / 60 30 70 30
GIF 95 74 93 75 / 80 60 80 40
SRQ 92 75 91 76 / 30 30 50 30
BKV 92 72 91 72 / 30 20 60 20
SPG 91 77 89 78 / 30 30 50 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
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