085
FXUS62 KTBW 261802
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
202 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WE ARE SLOWLY SEEING A PATTERN SHIFT TODAY. LOOKING AT THE MORNING
SKEW-T WE CAN SEE SURFACE WINDS COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST INSTEAD
OF SOUTHWEST AND PW ABOVE 2 INCHES. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE SEEING THAT
WIND SHIFT AT THE SURFACE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL REMAINS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS MEANS ARE MEAN FLOW IS OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR STORM CHANCES OVER THE INLAND AREAS. BEST
CHANCE FOR THE WEST COAST TO SEE STORMS WILL BE IN THE EVENING AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES START TO SET UP. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY MEANS OUR
MEAN FLOW WHICH WILL ALSO BE SOUTHEAST. THIS MEANS THE FOCUS OF
STORMS WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WITH FAVORABLE STORMS ON THE
WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WE ARE SEEING MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TODAY
WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OUR WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCES IN
SW FLORIDA AND IN THE INTERIOR. VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS BELOW 10
KNOTS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH OUR
SATURDAY. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WE HEAD INTO
OUR SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH WHICH WILL CAUSE OUR WINDS TO
SHIFT EASTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS FOR SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE EVENING HOURS AS THEY PUSH OFF THE
WEST COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE HAS PUSHED BACK INTO THE STATE WHICH
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 77 90 77 / 40 30 50 20
FMY 94 76 92 76 / 60 40 50 30
GIF 95 74 93 75 / 80 60 70 30
SRQ 92 75 91 76 / 30 30 40 30
BKV 92 72 91 72 / 40 30 50 20
SPG 91 77 89 78 / 30 30 40 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...DAVIS
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page