592
FXUS62 KTBW 270010
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
810 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR HAS PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME LOCATIONS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PUSHING
WEST ACROSS THE REGION HELPING TO POP SOME MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE GULF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
TAKING THE CONVECTION WITH IT OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK AT THIS TIME WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT LAL EARLY THIS
EVENING. MORE MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AT TPA, PIE, AND SRQ AS CONVECTION
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BAY/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. THIS
CONVECTION WILL MOVE INLAND AND COULD AFFECT THE OTHER TAF SITES
OF LAL, PGD, FMY, AND RSW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
LIGHT SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THEN BECOME
SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CONVECTION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WE ARE SLOWLY SEEING A PATTERN SHIFT TODAY. LOOKING AT THE MORNING
SKEW-T WE CAN SEE SURFACE WINDS COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST INSTEAD
OF SOUTHWEST AND PW ABOVE 2 INCHES. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE SEEING THAT
WIND SHIFT AT THE SURFACE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW STILL REMAINS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS MEANS ARE MEAN FLOW IS OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR STORM CHANCES OVER THE INLAND AREAS. BEST
CHANCE FOR THE WEST COAST TO SEE STORMS WILL BE IN THE EVENING AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES START TO SET UP. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY.
AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY MEANS OUR
MEAN FLOW WHICH WILL ALSO BE SOUTHEAST. THIS MEANS THE FOCUS OF
STORMS WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TREND WITH FAVORABLE STORMS ON THE
WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH OUR
SATURDAY. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. A WE HEAD INTO
OUR SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTH WHICH WILL CAUSE OUR WINDS TO
SHIFT EASTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. BEST CHANCE OF
STORMS FOR SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE EVENING HOURS AS THEY PUSH OFF THE
WEST COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE HAS PUSHED BACK INTO THE STATE WHICH
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 76 90 77 90 / 30 50 20 60
FMY 76 93 77 94 / 40 50 30 70
GIF 74 93 74 94 / 60 70 30 60
SRQ 75 91 75 91 / 30 40 30 50
BKV 71 90 72 91 / 30 50 20 70
SPG 77 89 77 90 / 30 40 30 50
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLANNERY
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