783
FXUS62 KTBW 271413
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1013 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1006 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
MOST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN OFFSHORE. THE
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MOVED ONSHORE WEAKENED RATHER QUICKLY THIS
MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS GENERALLY FROM
THE SOUTH. THE SEABREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES
COLLIDING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DUE TO THIS, BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
INLAND. THIS MORNINGS 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED PW VALUES OF 2.03
INCHES. THESE VALUES ARE AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE
AUGUST. DUE TO THIS, THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHERE LOCATIONS COULD QUICKLY PICK UP AN INCH OR 2
OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PUSH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY INLAND, WITH INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH
STORMS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WITH PCPW
VALUES IN THE 2 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SIMILAR SET-UP ON FRIDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMING ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH
HIGHEST POPS AGAIN OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVER THE WEEKEND, EASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED WHICH WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY COLLIDES WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
SIMILAR PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONE
CAVEAT WILL BE THAT SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY ADVECT OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY MID WEEK WHICH COULD DECREASE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, AND MAY INCREASE THE
RISK FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS CURRENTLY OFFSHORE. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE
THAT THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL IMPACT KSRQ, KTPA, KPIE IN THE
NEAR-TERM. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE INLAND WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTS AT KLAL. ANY ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER
SUNSET WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL
BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 77 90 77 / 50 20 50 30
FMY 92 76 93 76 / 50 30 60 30
GIF 92 74 93 75 / 60 40 70 40
SRQ 90 76 91 76 / 40 20 50 30
BKV 89 72 90 72 / 50 30 60 30
SPG 89 78 89 78 / 30 20 40 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ANDERSON
DECISION SUPPORT...SHIVELEY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...SHIVELEY
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