439
FXUS62 KTBW 131237
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
837 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 832 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT PERHAPS WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH STORMS
THAT DO FORM.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ARRIVES MID-WEEK, WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS COASTAL WATERS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 832 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
THE 12Z MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING IS SHOWING A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA WITH A PWAT OF 2.38 INCHES. IT IS ALSO
SHOWING A VERY LIGHT WIND FLOW WITH LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OF WIND
THROUGH THE COLUMN. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOME SPORADIC SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. WITH THIS VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT WIND FLOW, WE CAN EXPECT SLOW MOVING
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE HAS COASTAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST JUST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY BY
LATE MORNING AND THEN FILLING IN OVER THE INLAND AREAS BY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES OVER SW FLORIDA. SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS.
CURRENT FORECAST IS TRACKING WELL WITH NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 832 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE
EARLY MORNING, THEN SLIGHTLY INCREASING WSW AROUND 5-8 KNOTS BY 14Z.
RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS
AND GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COASTAL SHOWERS BY MID-
LATE MORNING, SO WILL COVER THIS WITH VCSH AFTER 14Z FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT LAL, WHERE ACTIVITY WILL START LATER AROUND 18Z.
TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z, SO WILL KEEP VCTS AND TEMPO GROUPS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL SITES. GUSTY
WINDS, LOWER CIGS AND VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS AND
SHOWERS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 832 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY
AND MONDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 2 FEET. BY
TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA. THIS
WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE QUICKLY AS THE LOW APPROACHES,
REACHING UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE HIGHER
WINDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY OUT OF THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO AROUND 4-7 FEET MID-WEEK.
DECREASING WINDS AND ABATING SEAS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
RIDGING IS NOW SITTING RIGHT OVERHEAD THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
UPPER LEVEL FLOW VERY LIGHT. THIS REGIME RESULTS IN SLOW MOVING
STORMS WHERE OUTFLOWS ARE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT. THIS
REGIME ALSO BRINGS HIGHER CHANCES FOR LOCALIZE FLOODING AS STORMS
TEND TO "SIT" OVER AN AREA.
AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO APPROACH
THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY. THIS WILL BRING OUR WINDS
EASTERLY AGAIN. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE
COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
BY WEDNESDAY THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE BE GETTING CLOSER TO THE
STATE. OUT AHEAD OF IT WE WILL SEE SOME DRIER AIR ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-4 WHERE PW COULD DROP BELOW 1.5. WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE AS SUSTAINED WINDS COULD REACH AROUND 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS
CLOSE TO 30. MOISTURE WILL START TO RETURN ON THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. WINDS WILL CALM
DOWN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS. SHOWER
CHANCES NORTH OF I- 4 WILL START TO RETURN.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
NEXT SATURDAY. THIS WILL SWITCH OUR WIND FLOW TO ALMOST A
COMPLETELY NORTHERLY DIRECTION. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP
TO BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THE MORNING WITH MOST OF US
IN THE LOW TO MID 70'S COMPARED TO THE MID TO UPPER 70'S WE HAVE
SEEN ALL SUMMER. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 78 91 78 / 50 10 50 30
FMY 92 77 92 77 / 60 20 60 30
GIF 93 75 93 75 / 60 20 30 40
SRQ 91 77 92 76 / 50 20 50 40
BKV 91 74 93 73 / 40 10 30 20
SPG 90 79 91 79 / 50 20 50 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 1
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 1
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...WYNN
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