329
FXUS62 KTBW 131821
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
221 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH STORMS THAT DO FORM.
- GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
BY MID-WEEK ACROSS EASTERN GULF WATERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
A WEAK LOW IS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. CLOSER TO FLORIDA, WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE
AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF IS PRODUCING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
AS SEEN ON THE 12Z MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDING, A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT IS OVER THE AREA WITH A PWAT OF 2.38 INCHES. THESE LIGHT
WINDS AND VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 2.0 - 2.4
INCHES WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WE CAN EXPECT
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
HAS SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST FILLING IN OVER THE
INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES OVER SW FLORIDA. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
THESE SLOW MOVING STORMS. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
MONDAY WITH EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WATERS AND THEN TRAVERSING INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TROUGHING NEAR
BERMUDA EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS, ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES RIDGES SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO SET
UP OVER FLORIDA WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. PWAT VALUES
SLIGHTLY DROP TO 1.7 - 2.2 INCHES ON TUESDAY, WHICH IS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO RIDGE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA, WHILE AN UPPER LOW AND
TROUGHING MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL KEEP GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH SOME HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SOME DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES,
WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE NATURE
COAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS OVER SW FLORIDA FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING AND THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES LOCATED OVER SW FLORIDA.
MOISTURE REBOUNDS BY NEXT SATURDAY WITH PWAT VALUES BACK UP OVER 2
INCHES FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS AREA WIDE EACH AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY COOLING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, VFR CONDITIONS AND WSW WINDS AROUND 5-8
KNOTS PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEST COAST AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THEM SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL COVER THIS WITH VCTS/VCSH AND TEMPO
GROUPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL SITES.
GUSTY WINDS, LOWER CIGS AND VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE IN
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST TERMINALS (PGD/RSW/FMY) WILL
SEE STORMS THE LATEST, BUT WILL CLEAR AFTER 00Z, WITH MOSTLY RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY
AND MONDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 2 FEET. BY
TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGHING WILL START TO APPROACH THE
AREA. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE QUICKLY AS THE LOW
APPROACHES, REACHING UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THESE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO AROUND 4-7 FEET MID-WEEK. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DECREASING WINDS AND ABATING SEAS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH
THROUGH TUESDAY, EXCEPT GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 91 77 91 / 10 50 30 80
FMY 76 92 77 92 / 20 60 40 80
GIF 75 94 76 92 / 20 50 30 80
SRQ 77 92 76 93 / 10 40 30 80
BKV 74 93 74 93 / 10 50 30 70
SPG 79 91 78 92 / 10 40 30 70
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 1
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...PEARCE
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