129
FXUS62 KTBW 140040
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
840 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH STORMS THAT DO FORM.
- GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
BY MID-WEEK ACROSS EASTERN GULF WATERS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED. OTHER THAN A FEW
SLOW MOVING STORMS THAT STALLED OVER SOME AREAS ACROSS SWFL AND
THE INTERIOR, CONVECTION REMAINED UNIMPRESIVE. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE CALM WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING NEAR THE
COAST EARLY AS LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. CHANCES
GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE INLAND. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CLIMB UP INTO THE 90S WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES.
LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT PONDING OF WATER AND MINOR
FLOODING IN AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS IT REMAINS ON TRACK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS IN PLACE. RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE NEAR THE
COAST WITH A NONE ZERO CHANCE EARLIER IN THE DAY, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD IT TO THE TAFS. STORMS SHOULD MIGRATE
FROM THE SHORE INTO NEAR TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE NEAR
STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 91 77 91 / 10 50 30 80
FMY 76 92 77 92 / 20 60 40 80
GIF 75 94 76 92 / 20 50 30 80
SRQ 77 92 76 93 / 10 40 30 80
BKV 74 93 74 93 / 10 50 30 70
SPG 79 91 78 92 / 10 40 30 70
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 1
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...DELERME
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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