963
FXUS62 KTBW 140700
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
300 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH STORMS THAT DO FORM.
- GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
BY MID-WEEK ACROSS EASTERN GULF WATERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
RIDGING REMAINS OVERHEAD TODAY WHICH IS RESULTING IN LIGHT UPPER
LEVEL. INTERESTING ENOUGH YOU WOULD THINK LIGHT FLOW WOULD RESULT IN
HIGHEST STORM CHANCES IN THE INTERIOR WHEN BOTH SEABREEZE COLLIDE.
HOWEVER, CLIMO ACTUALLY FAVORS THE WEST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRIFTING INLAND BY THE EVENING.
BY TUESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT NORTH RESULTING IN OUR
WIND FLOW TURNING EASTERLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING FAVORABLE
STORM CHANCES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WITH TIMING IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AS WE HEAD INTO OUR WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO
APPROACH THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE LOW WE WILL SEE DRYER AIR
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 WHERE SHOWERS WILL NOT BE
EXPECTED. AT THE SAME TIME AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL START TO
INCREASE OUR OF THE EAST. WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WIND AROUND 15 MPH
AND WITH GUST AS HIGH AS 25. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO PUSH
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS IT DOES SO WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED AS
SHOWER CHANCES NORTH OF I-4 RETURN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE STATE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS START TO CALM DOWN. EVEN
THOUGH WE WILL SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT FOR STORMS BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING SOME DRIER AIR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH
MOST OF US IN THE LOW TO MID 70'S INSTEAD OF THE MID TO UPPER 70'S.
IT MIGHT NOT SOUND LIKE MUCH BUT AFTER MONTHS OF HIGH HUMIDITY AND
WARM MORNING IT WILL BE OUR FIRST SMALL HINT OF THE CHANGING
SEASONS.
BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE GONE HOWEVER THE STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STORM CHANCES FAVORING THE WEST COAST ONCE AGAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THIS WILL
FAVOR STORMS ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS WE CAN EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WIND WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY WITH WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS. AS
THE RIDGE START TO MOVE AWAY WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS. BY WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO
APPROACH THE AREA AND THEN PUSH THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE THE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH INCREASING SEAS. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PUSH AWAY RESULTING IN WINDS COMING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OUT OF
THE EAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE STATE WHICH WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MID WEEK. WE
WILL NOT HAVE ANY MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 77 90 77 / 60 20 70 10
FMY 92 76 92 76 / 60 30 70 10
GIF 93 75 91 75 / 60 30 60 0
SRQ 92 76 93 76 / 50 30 70 20
BKV 93 73 92 74 / 60 20 60 10
SPG 90 78 91 78 / 50 20 70 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 1
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLEMING
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