916
FXUS62 KTBW 142335
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
735 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 648 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
- GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
BY MID-WEEK ACROSS EASTERN GULF WATERS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 648 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER INTERIOR AREAS AND SWFL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY
ATTEMPT TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE PUSH WESTWARD.
AFTER THAT, FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. ON TUESDAY,
FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND THERE WILL BE AMPLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THE PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP EAST AND OVER INLAND AREAS EARLIER IN THE DAY, AND ADVECT
WESTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWED SHOWERS NEAR COASTAL AREAS DURING THE MORNING, BUT
MOST SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WATER. TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE IN THE 90S, EVEN IN COASTAL AREAS.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS IT REMAINS ON TRACK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
SOME CONVECTION REMAINS OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND PORTIONS OF
SWFL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED AFTER AROUND 02Z. LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ON TUESDAY SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION WILL MOVE
GENERALLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN THE MORNING, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TAF
SITES NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 91 77 90 / 30 60 30 20
FMY 77 92 76 91 / 50 50 30 60
GIF 76 92 76 90 / 40 60 20 20
SRQ 76 93 76 92 / 30 60 30 40
BKV 74 93 74 90 / 30 60 20 10
SPG 78 92 78 91 / 20 60 30 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...DELERME
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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