862
FXUS62 KTBW 150637
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
237 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
- GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
BY MID-WEEK ACROSS EASTERN GULF WATERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTING NORTH. THIS HAS SHIFTED OUR WIND
FLOW TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL CHANGE OUR TIMING OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH INLAND AREAS SEEING THEM IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE
COASTAL AREAS SEE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AS WE HEAD INTO OUR WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO
APPROACH THE STATE. AHEAD OF THE LOW WE WILL SEE DRYER AIR
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 WHERE SHOWERS WILL NOT BE
EXPECTED. AT THE SAME TIME AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL START TO
INCREASE OUR OF THE EAST. WE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WIND AROUND 15 MPH
AND WITH GUST AS HIGH AS 25. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO PUSH
THROUGH ON THURSDAY. AS IT DOES SO WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED AND
DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN NORTH OF I-4. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE STATE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS START TO CALM DOWN. EVEN
THOUGH WE WILL SEE ENOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT FOR STORMS BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING SOME DRIER AIR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH
MOST OF US IN THE LOW TO MID 70'S INSTEAD OF THE MID TO UPPER 70'S.
DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 60'S FOR SOME
INLAND AREA ALONG THE NATURE COAST.
BY THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE GONE AS EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES. THIS WILL RESULT IN STORM CHANCES FAVORING THE WEST
COAST ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WIND FLOW HAS SHIFTED MORE EASTERLY THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS
INLAND WITH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ALONG THE WEST
COAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
RIDGE HAS SHIFTED NORTH WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS MORE
EASTERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO
APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND PUSH THROUGH FLORIDA THURSDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS TO QUICKLY PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST.
THESE WINDS WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
GUST UP TO 30. BY FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO PUSH
AWAY RESULTING IN WINDS SLOWLY COMING DOWN. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WIND SPEEDS WILL RETURN TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE STATE WHICH WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH MID WEEK. WE
WILL NOT HAVE ANY MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 77 90 74 / 60 20 40 0
FMY 92 76 91 75 / 60 30 70 20
GIF 92 76 90 74 / 60 10 50 0
SRQ 93 76 92 74 / 70 30 60 10
BKV 93 74 91 71 / 60 10 20 0
SPG 92 78 91 76 / 60 20 40 0
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLEMING
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