775
FXUS62 KTBW 151841
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
241 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH STORMS
THAT DEVELOP.
- GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
STARTING TOMORROW ACROSS EASTERN GULF WATERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE WEST COAST. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS.
TOMORROW, A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO SET UP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE STATE. OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW, DRY AIR WILL MOVE
OVER THE STATE LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS DRY AIR WILL NOT
ONLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I4), BUT WILL ALSO DROP DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY. WITH THE BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS, CONDITIONS WILL FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE PLEASANT FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS PATTERN STICKS AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE INCREASES AS THE WEEKEND ARRIVES AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE OUT OVER THE GULF. THE
EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS KEEPING SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TODAY, HOWEVER A COUPLE OF POP UP SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. COVERAGE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INLAND AND TOWARDS THE COAST AS THE
EVENING APPROACHES. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. CONDITIONS CLEAR OVERNIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE TOMORROW AS DRY AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE WATERS FROM THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. THE EASTERLY WINDS ALSO BEGIN TO
INCREASE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, THEN
SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH BY TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS STAY ELEVATED
THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES WEST OVER FL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
A PERIOD OF DRY AIR AND ELEVATED WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 90 75 89 / 20 20 0 10
FMY 76 90 76 90 / 30 50 10 50
GIF 75 89 74 90 / 10 30 0 20
SRQ 76 91 75 91 / 30 40 0 20
BKV 74 90 71 89 / 10 0 0 10
SPG 78 90 76 90 / 20 30 0 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 3
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT...HURT
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