715
FXUS62 KTBW 160005
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- DRIER AIR AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING WEST OUT
INTO THE EASTERN GULF WITH OTHERS MOVING WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL COME TO
AN END, BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVE
WEST INTO THE INTERIOR LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST WITH
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE BREEZY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LIMITING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HERE, WHILE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL HOLD ON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WITH
MORE MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TAFS OF
PGD, FMY, AND RSW. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
MID- MORNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS SETTLED OVER THE AREA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS
THE WEST COAST. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS, THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS.
TOMORROW, A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO SET UP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES THE STATE. OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW, DRY AIR WILL MOVE
OVER THE STATE LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS DRY AIR WILL NOT
ONLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I4), BUT WILL ALSO DROP DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY. WITH THE BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS, CONDITIONS WILL FEEL SLIGHTLY MORE PLEASANT FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS PATTERN STICKS AROUND THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE INCREASES AS THE WEEKEND ARRIVES AND THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE OUT OVER THE GULF. THE
EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS KEEPING SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER THE WATERS FROM THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BRING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. THE EASTERLY WINDS ALSO BEGIN TO
INCREASE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, THEN
SPREAD FURTHER SOUTH BY TOMORROW EVENING. WINDS STAY ELEVATED
THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES WEST OVER FL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
A PERIOD OF DRY AIR AND ELEVATED WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, HOWEVER RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 90 75 89 / 20 20 0 10
FMY 76 90 76 90 / 30 50 10 50
GIF 75 89 74 90 / 10 30 0 20
SRQ 76 91 75 91 / 30 40 0 20
BKV 74 90 71 89 / 10 0 0 10
SPG 78 90 76 90 / 20 30 0 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 3
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DELERME
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