926
FXUS62 KTBW 161846
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
246 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
- ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TODAY WHILE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MINIMAL.
- GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
THE DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS
IS SLOWLY FILTERING INTO FLORIDA TODAY. THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING FOR
THE TAMPA BAY AREA STILL HAD A PWAT VALUE OF JUST OVER 2" WHEREAS
THE SOUNDING FOR NE FLORIDA HAD A PWAT VALUE OF SLIGHTLY OVER 1".
THE DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SINK FURTHER SOUTH, DROPPING DEW
POINTS AND RAIN CHANCES IN ITS WAKE. THE MOST NOTICEABLE EFFECTS
WILL BE NORTH OF I4, AS ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER SOUTH OF THAT
AREA TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW. GUSTY, NORTH EASTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES THE A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN WILL SET UP AS
MOISTURE MOVES BACK IN FROM THE EAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER ON THE EAST SIDE OF FLORIDA EARLY IN THE DAY THEN SHIFT
TOWARDS THE WEST COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THROUGH
THE PATTERN CHANGES, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE LOW 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY, NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FOR SWFL SITES.
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD OCCUR WITH
ANY PASSING SHOWER OR STORM.CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION
CONVECTION FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES. QUIET CONDITIONS RETURN
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE AREA KEEPS WINDS ELEVATED TO ADVISORY LEVELS. ELEVATED
WINDS AND SEAS AREA EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTH
EASTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, RH VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 75 89 74 90 / 0 10 0 30
FMY 76 89 74 91 / 20 40 10 70
GIF 74 89 73 91 / 0 10 10 40
SRQ 75 91 74 92 / 0 10 0 50
BKV 72 89 70 91 / 0 0 0 10
SPG 76 90 76 91 / 0 10 0 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 3
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WATERS FROM
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
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