406
FXUS62 KTBW 162348
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
748 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
- ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TODAY WHILE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MINIMAL.
- GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN OVER INTERIOR AREAS AND OVER THE WATER,
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR TWO. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE
LOW 70S, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. AREAS SOUTH REMAIN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S MAINLY NEAR THE COAST. BREEZY WINDS
DECREASE SOME TONIGHT, BUT WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND
STAY GUSTY MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO
CREATE DANGEROUS MARITIME CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFTS THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN NEAR 90 DEGREES, WHILE
DRIER AIR LIMITS CONVECTION EVEN FURTHER ON THURSDAY. THERE MIGHT
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS SWFL AREAS AND THIS IS WHERE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE THE HIGHEST (MOSTLY 30-40%).
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS IT REMAINS ON
TRACK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW IN MOST LOCATIONS. THERE SHOULD
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE ACROSS SWFL TERMINALS TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM OR TWO DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 75 89 74 / 20 0 10 0
FMY 89 76 89 74 / 60 20 40 10
GIF 89 74 89 73 / 40 0 10 10
SRQ 90 75 91 74 / 40 0 10 0
BKV 90 72 89 70 / 10 0 0 0
SPG 90 76 90 76 / 30 0 10 0
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 3
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
UPDATE/AVIATION...DELERME
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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