304
FXUS62 KTBW 171750
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
150 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY, WHILE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
- GUSTY EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
DRY AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA, EVIDENT IN THIS MORNING'S
SOUNDING WITH A PWAT VALUE SHOWING 1.6" COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S
2.2". WHEN YOU VENTURE OUTSIDE TODAY THE CONDITIONS MAY FEEL
SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AND MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE PLEASANT, ESPECIALLY
WHEN YOU FACTOR IN THE NE BREEZE. WITH THE DRY AIR OVER THE AREA,
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER SWFL WHERE ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL LINGERS
LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP BACK INTO THE AREA
STARTING TOMORROW FROM THE SOUTH, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF
I4. ELEVATED GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS FLORIDA AND LINGER IN THE EASTERN
GULF. THIS WILL HELP PUSH MORE MOISTURE OVER THE STATE, INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES. ELEVATED GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO LAX. A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW WILL TAKE OVER, WHICH WILL FAVOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR OUR AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR SWFL WHICH COULD LEAD TO BELOW
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS AND
SEAS REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS
THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CONTINUES TO BE THE
ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS. WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE
AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 74 90 75 89 / 0 30 10 60
FMY 74 90 74 90 / 10 50 30 80
GIF 73 91 72 90 / 0 30 10 70
SRQ 74 92 74 90 / 0 40 20 60
BKV 70 91 70 90 / 0 20 10 60
SPG 76 91 76 89 / 0 30 10 60
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 3
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
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