642
FXUS62 KTBW 180711
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
311 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
- THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY AND SATURDAY, BUT
WILL REMAIN LIMITED OVER THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES. HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS HOLDING NORTH OF
FLORIDA, WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER THE CARIBBEAN,
KEEPING EAST AND NORTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE. EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS PUSHING
WEST OUT OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF WATERS AS
DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE STATE FROM THE ATLANTIC ON THE
PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN
OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH ENOUGH
DRY AIR IS LINGERING OVER THE NATURE COAST COUNTIES TO KEEP RAIN
COVERAGE THERE ISOLATED AT BEST TODAY. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY, AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE SUNDAY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN MORE NUMEROUS
STORM COVERAGE, AND PERHAPS SOME HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. UNDER CONTINUED
EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, THE DAILY PATTERN WILL TYPICALLY
INVOLVE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PENINSULA AND SHIFTING ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, THEN GENERALLY SPREADING WEST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH WEST TOWARDS AREA TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AROUND KRSW, KFMY, AND KPGD. BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS
APPROACH INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
BREEZY EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS SETTLES IN, WITH WINDS REMAINING NEAR
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS TODAY, THEN GENERALLY REMAINING
LESS THAN 15 KNOTS DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO GREATER STORM COVERAGE,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS EXPECTED NEAR THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING A RETURN OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. WHILE THE NATURE
COAST COUNTIES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
TODAY, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY, THEN ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY. NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 74 90 75 / 40 10 70 20
FMY 90 74 89 74 / 70 40 60 30
GIF 91 72 91 73 / 30 10 60 10
SRQ 92 74 90 74 / 50 30 60 30
BKV 92 71 91 71 / 20 10 50 10
SPG 91 76 89 76 / 50 30 60 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 3
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLEMING
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