506
FXUS62 KTBW 190445
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1245 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY, BUT WILL REMAIN
LIMITED ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
AN U/L LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND THE RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL WITH STRONGER STORMS. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT MAINLY DURING THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE U/L LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
CREATING SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL ADVECT SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WITH
CONTINUED ENHANCED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS COLD, BUT THE RISK
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
AN U/L DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED S/W TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LIFT THE U/L
LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF NORTHEAST AND WILL FINALLY ABSORB THE
SYSTEM AS THE NORTHERN STREAM U/L TROUGH MOVES TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EACH DAY.
AN U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY DECREASING POPS A
BIT...BUT A RETROGRADING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH THE U/L RIDGE
SLOWLY PUSHING WEST AND A REX BLOCK BRIEFLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WILL INDUCE U/L TROUGHING
TO DEVELOP OVER FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWER/STORMS WILL STILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH
DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE, MAINLY VCNTY
TPA/PIE/LAL, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. AREAS OF VFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON 035-045
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITH LCL MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS WHICH MAY
IMPACT TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS MAINLY DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT PGD/FMY/RSW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
CAUTIONARY LEVELS. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS, WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1204 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 74 88 75 / 50 20 60 40
FMY 90 74 89 74 / 60 40 70 50
GIF 90 73 90 73 / 60 20 70 20
SRQ 90 74 89 74 / 50 30 70 50
BKV 91 71 91 71 / 60 10 60 20
SPG 88 76 88 76 / 50 30 60 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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