655
FXUS62 KTBW 191739
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
139 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TODAY, BUT WILL REMAIN
LIMITED ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS IS APPARENT ON BOTH WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING THE CENTER OF THIS LOW EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
GULF TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ON THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A PREDOMINANT NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z
MORNING SOUNDING IS SHOWING A PWAT OF 1.90 INCHES AND SOME SLIGHTLY
COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -9 DEGREES.
THESE COOLER TEMPS MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH A SMALL
RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL WITH STRONGER STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BY
SUNDAY MORNING FURTHER INTO THE EASTERN GULF. PWAT REMAINS ABOUT THE
SAME AROUND 1.7 - 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
ON TUESDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.7 - 2.0 INCHES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED EACH DAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OVER FLORIDA FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK
PRODUCING A PREDOMINANT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.3 - 1.6 INCHES WILL
ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS WELL, WITH LOWER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE
FOR NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS
IMPACTING TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
PGD/FMY/RSW. WILL COVER THIS WITH VCTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z, AND TEMPO TSRA BETWEEN 18-23Z. OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PRODUCING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. THE MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY,
WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BRINGING HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, WITH NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 74 88 75 88 / 10 50 30 80
FMY 74 89 74 89 / 30 50 50 80
GIF 73 90 73 90 / 10 50 20 80
SRQ 74 89 74 88 / 40 50 40 80
BKV 71 91 71 90 / 10 40 20 80
SPG 76 88 76 87 / 20 50 40 80
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DELERME
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