398
FXUS62 KTBW 200050
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
850 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 846 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
- WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER FLORIDA, A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ON SUNDAY.
- A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 846 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWFL THIS EVENING, BUT THE
OVERALL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND. MANY AREAS THIS
EVENING HAVE SEEN BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, WITH SOME POCKETS UPWARDS
OF 4 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO SEE
REBOUNDING MOISTURE TOMORROW AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK, SHOULD SEE THE COVERAGE CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
ALL THE EXTRA MOISTURE AND A LIGHT NE FLOW ONCE AGAIN COULD SUPPORT
SOME LOW CLOUDS TOWARDS MORNING. GIVEN THAT OVERALL THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WAS BETTER TODAY, ONE WOULD EXPECT THE POTENTIAL TO BE
HIGHER. INDEED, SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THIS TONIGHT. SO THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED TO SHOW THIS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND REMAINS ON TRACK. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS IS APPARENT ON BOTH WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING THE CENTER OF THIS LOW EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
GULF TO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. ON THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A PREDOMINANT NORTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z
MORNING SOUNDING IS SHOWING A PWAT OF 1.90 INCHES AND SOME SLIGHTLY
COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH THE 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -9 DEGREES.
THESE COOLER TEMPS MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH A SMALL
RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL WITH STRONGER STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BY
SUNDAY MORNING FURTHER INTO THE EASTERN GULF. PWAT REMAINS ABOUT THE
SAME AROUND 1.7 - 2.0 INCHES ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST
ON TUESDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.7 - 2.0 INCHES
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED EACH DAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OVER FLORIDA FOR THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK
PRODUCING A PREDOMINANT NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION. SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.3 - 1.6 INCHES WILL
ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS WELL, WITH LOWER SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE
FOR NEXT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 846 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN ACROSS SWFL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. GIVEN THE LATE LINGERING STORMS AND OVERALL GREATER
COVERAGE TODAY, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING TOMORROW. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXPLICITLY FORECAST IFR
CONDITIONS, BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW SCT LAYER AT MOST SITES. IF
THE FLOW IS LIGHT ENOUGH AND THE SURFACE RH VALUES REMAIN HIGH,
IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME EARLY MORNING FOG IN SOME AREAS
TOO. AGAIN - NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXPLICITLY FORECAST THIS.
ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE, WITH VFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WAS GOOD COVERAGE TODAY, AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT COVERAGE AND
TIMING SHOULD BE SIMILAR ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW. ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES REMAIN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS AND AN EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PRODUCING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. THE MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY,
WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2026
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BRINGING HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS, WITH NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 74 89 74 89 / 10 50 30 80
FMY 74 90 74 89 / 30 50 50 80
GIF 73 90 73 90 / 10 50 20 80
SRQ 74 89 74 89 / 40 50 40 80
BKV 71 91 71 91 / 10 40 20 80
SPG 76 88 76 88 / 20 50 40 80
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 1
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...FLANNERY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WYNN
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