462
FXUS62 KTBW 200530
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
130 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
- A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DRIER AIR BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
AN U/L LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN GULF
TODAY. AN ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND
THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY HAIL WITH STRONGER
STORMS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE A BIT EARLIER IN THE DAY
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAN'T BE RULED
OUT MAINLY DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. PCPW VALUES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL CREATE THE RISK
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. BUMPED UP
POPS TODAY AS GUIDANCE APPEARED A BIT LOW.
THE U/L LOW WILL DRIFT BACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING.
AN U/L DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED S/W TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL LIFT THE U/L LOW
OVER THE PENINSULA NORTHEAST AND WILL FINALLY BE ABSORBED INTO THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AS THE U/L TROUGH MOVES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
LATE WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EACH DAY.
AN U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY DECREASING POPS A
BIT...BUT A RETROGRADING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH THE U/L RIDGE
SLOWLY PUSHING WEST AND A REX BLOCK BRIEFLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST...WHICH WILL INDUCE U/L TROUGHING
TO DEVELOP OVER FLORIDA. AS THE OVERALL U/L PATTERN AMPLIFIES A BIT,
THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR DRIER AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT TO ADVECT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
SURFACE AND ALOFT. DEW POINTS COULD DROP BELOW 70 IN MANY AREAS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
VFR CIGS AOA120 WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT MOST
TERMINALS, WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT. SCT
LCL BKN 030-040 WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO DEVELOPING
WITH LCL MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS, WHICH MAY IMPACT TERMINALS FOR A FEW
HOURS MAINLY DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST CHANCE
WILL BE AT PGD/FMY/RSW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
CAUTIONARY LEVELS. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS, WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 75 89 76 / 60 30 60 40
FMY 89 74 89 75 / 60 30 70 50
GIF 90 73 90 74 / 60 20 70 30
SRQ 89 74 89 75 / 60 30 60 50
BKV 90 71 91 72 / 50 30 70 40
SPG 88 76 88 77 / 60 30 50 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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