962
FXUS62 KTBW 210005
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 804 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE
TOMORROW. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OF 50+ MPH AND
SMALL HAIL.
- A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DRIER AIR BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 804 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
IT HAS BEEN AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND DEEP MOISTURE ENHANCING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY; BUT THE
BOUNDARY THAT WAS THE CATALYST FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW MOVING
OFFSHORE. OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WIND
DOWN, LEAVING CONDITIONS RELATIVELY QUIET OVERNIGHT.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO CAPTURE
CURRENT TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
LOOKING AT SATELLITE YOU CAN CLEARLY SEE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING RIGHT OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR
WIND FLOW OUT OF THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL FAVOR STORMS
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CLOSER TO THE COAST IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE HEADING UP TO THE NORTHEAST
COAST. AS IT DOES SO WE WILL ENTER A MORE NEUTRAL FLOW REGIME
WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. WITH THIS REGIME STORMS FAVOR MORE
INLAND AREAS HOWEVER WE WILL STILL SEE SOME STORM HEADING TOWARDS
THE COAST THANKS TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE EVENING HOURS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO WEEKEND WE WILL SEE AN
INTERESTING PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVEL UP IN THE NORTHEAST. TWO
UPPER LEVEL LOWS START TO INTERACT RESULTING IN A FUJIWARA
EFFECT. HOW DOES THIS EFFECT OUR WEATHER? IT HELPS TO BRING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE AREA AND TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL SWITCH OUR WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTH AND BRINGING MUCH DRIER AIR. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWER CHANCES
DOWN AND BRING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING.
AREAS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST COULD SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60'S SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 804 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL TERMINALS SOUTH OF
TAMPA BAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE QUIETING OVERNIGHT.
THEREAFTER, NO ADDITIONAL IMPACTS FOR TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
AROUND 18Z TO 19Z. A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO REPEAT FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 804 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OUT OF THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST
WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY TURN ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS IN THE VICINITY. AS A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACHES THE AREA ON THURSDAY, WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE IN ACROSS THE STATE WHICH WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. WE WILL NOT HAVE ANY MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 74 89 75 89 / 30 50 20 60
FMY 74 89 75 90 / 50 50 40 80
GIF 73 90 73 91 / 20 70 30 70
SRQ 74 90 74 90 / 40 50 40 70
BKV 71 91 72 91 / 30 60 20 60
SPG 76 88 76 88 / 20 40 30 60
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...FLANNERY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SHIVELEY
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