322
FXUS62 KTBW 210434
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1234 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE. A
FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OF 50+ MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
- A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DRIER AIR BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
STAGNANT PATTERN WILL HOLD AS AN U/L LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR ONE MORE DAY ALONG WITH
AN ASSOCIATED POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL WITH STRONGER STORMS. PCPW VALUES
WILL REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES. EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL
CREATE THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.
AN U/L DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED S/W TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND WILL LIFT
THE U/L LOW OVER THE PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL FINALLY BE
ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AS THE U/L TROUGH
APPROACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EACH DAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH PCPW VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
AN U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL
EXTEND BRIEFLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MID WEEK. HOWEVER, A
RETROGRADING PATTERN WILL DEVELOP WITH THE U/L RIDGE SLOWLY
PUSHING WEST, AND A REX BLOCK WILL INITIALLY FORM OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE OVERALL PATTERN BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY, A DEEP CUT-OFF U/L LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS WILL INDUCE U/L TROUGHING OVER FLORIDA AND WILL
LIKELY PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH DRIER AIR SURFACE AND ALOFT
ADVECTING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE POPS,
AND DEW POINTS SHOULD DROP BELOW 70 IN MANY AREAS FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN SEVERAL MONTHS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH FEW-SCT250 THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT
ALL TERMINALS. SCT LCL BKN 030-040 WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO DEVELOPING WITH LCL MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS, WHICH
MAY IMPACT TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS MAINLY DURING THE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE AT PGD/FMY/RSW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY
TO POSSIBLY ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING. THE MAIN HAZARD THROUGH
MID WEEK WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE EVENING TO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WHICH MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 75 89 76 / 60 30 60 40
FMY 89 75 89 75 / 60 40 80 40
GIF 90 73 91 74 / 60 20 60 30
SRQ 90 74 89 75 / 50 30 60 40
BKV 91 71 91 72 / 50 30 50 30
SPG 88 76 88 77 / 60 30 60 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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