230
FXUS62 KTBW 211836
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
236 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE. A
FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OF 50+ MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
- A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME DRIER AIR BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL PARKED OVER FLORIDA TODAY, THE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER SWFL AND INLAND. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL INCREASE CHANCES
OF STRONGER STORMS, WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW MOVING, SO
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER LEVEL GETS SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE U.S. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE ONCE AGAIN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
SOUTH OVER FLORIDA. DRIER, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, WHICH WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES. OVER THE
WEEKEND, SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES COULD
WAKE UP IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN
THE UPPER 80S. OVERALL, SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS MOSTLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AND IMPACTING
SITES. TIMING FOR IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. QUIET CONDITIONS RETURN OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR
PATTERN EXPECTED TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING STORMS THAT DEVELOP OR MOVE OVER THE WATERS.
BY MIDWEEK HOWEVER, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS IT DEPARTS. WINDS WILL LIKELY
REACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADVISORY LEVELS.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PLENTY
OF MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 75 89 76 90 / 40 40 20 50
FMY 75 90 76 89 / 40 50 30 70
GIF 73 91 74 91 / 40 40 30 60
SRQ 75 90 76 90 / 40 40 30 50
BKV 72 91 73 91 / 30 40 20 50
SPG 76 89 77 89 / 30 40 30 50
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
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