818
FXUS62 KTBW 220643
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
243 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE.
- A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS HOLDING OVER
EASTERN CANADA, AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FUELING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. UNDER
THIS PATTERN, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS, POTENTIALLY SHIFTING INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE
MORNING, THEN HIGHER STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S, AND MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC WILL DEEPEN, EVENTUALLY PULLING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
INTO FLORIDA BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND,
ADVECTING IN A SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS. WHILE AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES, MORNING
LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER, DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S BY THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE 60S BY THE WEEKEND, WHICH SHOULD MAKE THE AIR FEEL SLIGHTLY
LESS HUMID. OTHERWISE, THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 4.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TERMINALS (KRSW, KFMY, AND KPGD)
DURING THE PRE-DAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY, POTENTIALLY
CAUSING BRIEF DISRUPTIONS AT AREA TERMINALS. FARTHER NORTH,
MORNING RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AROUND THE TAMPA BAY,
BUT SOME PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED AROUND AND JUST
AFTER SUNRISE. DURING THE AFTERNOON, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, WITH ALL AREA TERMINALS
HAVING A CHANCES OF SEEING REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT TIMES
BEFORE STORMS DISSIPATE BY AROUND 00-03Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL KEEP EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH, WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION OR POSSIBLY ADVISORY HEADLINES BEING NEEDED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE DAILY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE
GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD NORTH OF FLORIDA THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE HUMIDITY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 76 90 76 / 40 20 50 10
FMY 89 76 89 75 / 60 30 60 20
GIF 91 74 91 74 / 50 30 50 10
SRQ 90 76 90 75 / 40 30 60 20
BKV 92 73 92 72 / 40 30 60 10
SPG 88 77 90 77 / 30 20 50 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLEMING
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