248
FXUS62 KTBW 221310
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
910 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 910 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE.
- A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 910 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
MORNING TBW SOUNDING CONTINUING TO INDICATE ABUNDANT MOISTURE,
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2.1 INCHES, AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW.
EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZES MOVES INLAND WITH MORE
CONVECTION POPPING UP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER INLAND AREAS.
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD THEN DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE WEST COAST AND
OUT INTO THE EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 910 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
SOME AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT BY 15Z.
MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD, EXCEPT GUSTY AND
ERRATIC NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS HOLDING OVER
EASTERN CANADA, AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP WEAK EAST AND SOUTHEAST
FLOW IN PLACE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FUELING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, POTENTIALLY SHIFTING INTO
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING, THEN HIGHER STORM CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, AND MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, THE COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC WILL DEEPEN, EVENTUALLY PULLING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
INTO FLORIDA BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND,
ADVECTING IN A SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS. WHILE AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP A COUPLE OF DEGREES, MORNING
LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER, DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S BY THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO
THE 60S BY THE WEEKEND, WHICH SHOULD MAKE THE AIR FEEL SLIGHTLY
LESS HUMID. OTHERWISE, THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 4.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL KEEP EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH, WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION OR POSSIBLY ADVISORY HEADLINES BEING NEEDED AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE DAILY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE
GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD NORTH OF FLORIDA THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE HUMIDITY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 76 90 76 / 40 20 50 10
FMY 89 76 89 75 / 60 30 60 20
GIF 91 74 91 74 / 50 30 50 10
SRQ 90 76 90 75 / 40 30 60 20
BKV 92 73 92 72 / 40 30 60 10
SPG 88 77 90 77 / 30 20 50 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 1
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...PEARCE
UPPER AIR...SHIVELEY
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