246
FXUS62 KTBW 221850
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
250 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, THEN DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS THEN DEEPEN JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
IS HOLDING OVER EASTERN CANADA, AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. LATER IN THE WEEK, THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN WITH A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA DRIFTING SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THROUGH WEDNEDSAY THE LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH ADUNDANT MOISTURE LEADING TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND SOME OF THESE COULD MOVE
ONSHORE INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THEN AS
THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.
FOR THURSDAY WE'LL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
ALLOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP, BUT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THURDSAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
USHER IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME
OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH RAIN
CHANCES SLIM TO NONE. DEW POINTS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S
NORTH TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND MAKING IT FEEL A LOT
BETTER THAN IT HAS OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY WITH MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION TO RETURN TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-4 MONDAY AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT FOR
MUCH OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD, EXCEPT GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN FOR MARINERS BEING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK, WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WATERS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
LIGHT WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN LATE
IN THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 76 89 75 / 50 30 40 30
FMY 89 75 88 75 / 60 40 50 40
GIF 91 74 90 74 / 60 30 50 10
SRQ 90 75 90 75 / 40 30 40 30
BKV 92 73 91 73 / 40 30 40 20
SPG 88 77 89 76 / 40 30 40 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 1
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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