054
FXUS62 KTBW 230014
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
814 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 808 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, THEN DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 808 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WE'VE SEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE WEAKER
SIDE WITH WINDS LESS THAN 30 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVEN'T BEEN THAT
SIGNIFICANT EITHER, WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LESS THAN 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY. RADAR IS STILL SHOWING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH THE HIGHEST
CONCENTRATION NEAR TAMPA BAY. THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIFTING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE CURRENT FORECAST,
THEREFORE NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 808 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
SOME SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, SO WILL
COVER THIS WITH VCTS AND TEMPO GROUPS THROUGH 02Z, THEN RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCT/BKN
LOW CLOUDS AROUND 003-004 FEET PRODUCING SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 08-12Z, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MORE SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AFTER 19Z, SO WILL COVER THIS WITH VCTS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD, EXCEPT GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR SHRA AND TSRA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 808 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN WEATHER
CONCERN FOR MARINERS BEING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK, WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS APPROACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 76 89 75 89 / 30 40 30 30
FMY 75 88 75 90 / 40 50 40 50
GIF 74 90 74 90 / 30 50 10 60
SRQ 75 90 75 91 / 30 40 30 40
BKV 73 91 73 90 / 30 40 20 20
SPG 77 89 76 90 / 30 40 30 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 1
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLEMING
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