265
FXUS62 KTBW 231245
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
845 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 845 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
- DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN THURSDAY AND
WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 845 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
MORNING TBW SOUNDING CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE, PRECIPITABLE WATER 2.2 INCHES. SCATTERED
CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING, BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FIRST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP, BUT IT DOES LOOK
LIKE THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST KEEPING
THE SEA BREEZE CLOSE TO COAST AND THEREFORE THIS CONVECTION NEAR
THE COAST. WILL SEE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP AND MOVE
WEST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 845 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COULD CAUSE SOME MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS, OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO EARLY TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING IT APPEARS THAT SOME AREAS OF MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR,
CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO
INCREASE. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD, EXCEPT GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WILL LARGELY BE MORE OF THE SAME, WITH
LIGHT EAST AND NORTHEAST FLOW KEEPING SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PUSH INTO THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST FROM THE GULF DURING THE MORNING HOURS, THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT IN A DRIER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE LOWER ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND ALONG
THE COAST. BY FRIDAY, THE DRIER AIR WILL HAVE FILLED IN ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA, KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA LARGELY RAIN FREE
THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS SHOULD FEEL NOTICEABLY
COOLER AND DRIER DURING THE WEEKEND, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S OVER THE NATURE COAST, AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S, BUT WITH DEW POINTS MAINLY IN THE 60S, HUMIDITY SHOULD
FEEL A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE THAN IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SETTLE
SOUTH INTO FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE COASTAL LOW
DEPARTS TO THE NORTH. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
BRING BACK MOISTURE, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST
FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF WILL KEEP EAST AND NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BRING LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WATERS,
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES LIKELY BEING NEEDED BY
THURSDAY MORNING, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES BEING NEEDED
BY THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY LEVELS AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD NORTH OF FLORIDA TODAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND AMPLE HUMIDITY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY
AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BRINGING DRIER AIR AND LOWER RAIN
CHANCES BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 75 89 72 / 50 20 20 0
FMY 89 75 90 74 / 60 30 30 10
GIF 90 74 90 72 / 60 10 40 0
SRQ 90 75 91 73 / 60 30 20 10
BKV 91 72 90 69 / 50 20 10 0
SPG 90 76 90 74 / 60 30 20 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...SHIVELEY
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