504
FXUS62 KTBW 231845
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
245 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN THURSDAY AND
WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA WITH A TROUGH/CONVERGENT ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA, WITH SOME OTHERS
TRYING TO POP UP ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SOUTH OF TAMPA
BAY.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WE'LL SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASING. CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE EASTERN
GULF THIS EVENING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BRINGING DRIER AIR
SOUTHWARD.
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL USHER IN
MORE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DIPPING BELOW 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, BUT MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. ON FRIDAY THE DRIER AIR WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITH
FAIR WEATHER AND DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.
THE FAIR AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DEW POINTS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH. THIS
WILL ALLOW MORNING LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO UPPER
60S SOUTH, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY AS THE HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL
ALLOW A MOISTURE TO SLOWLY INCREASE ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
COULD CAUSE SOME MVFR/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS, OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO EARLY TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING SOME AREAS OF MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, CEILINGS COULD
DEVELOP AS NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING.
GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WATERS, WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES LIKELY BEING NEEDED BY THURSDAY MORNING, AND
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES BEING NEEDED BY THURSDAY EVENING.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY
LEVELS AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, WITH
INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BRINGING DRIER AIR AND LOWER
RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY. THE DRIER AIR WILL HOLD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN CHANCE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH SUSTAINED 20-FOOT WINDS
LESS THAN 15 MPH, THEREFORE THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT
THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 74 89 72 87 / 20 10 0 0
FMY 75 90 73 89 / 20 20 10 0
GIF 74 91 71 88 / 10 20 0 10
SRQ 74 91 73 89 / 20 10 10 0
BKV 73 90 70 87 / 10 10 0 0
SPG 76 90 73 87 / 30 10 10 0
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 3
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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