880
FXUS62 KTBW 232301
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
701 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN THURSDAY AND
WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
SOME CONVECTION IS STILL DEVELOPING ACROSS SW FL, HOWEVER, MOST
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED AND/OR PUSH OFFSHORE. EAST TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING A DEGREE
OR TWO, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR NATURE COAST. THIS PATTERN
COULD SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS EARLY IN THE MORNING, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH WIND TO MOVE THEM ALONG AND SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
AFTER SUNRISE. BREEZY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ON THURSDAY. ALSO, DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
PENINSULA KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOW WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (UP
TO 20%) EXPECTED ACROSS SW FL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. AFTERNOON
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OVER 90 DEGREES WITH NORTHERN
LOCATIONS STAYING IN THE UPPER 80S.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS IT REMAINS ON TRACK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THEN, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT PATTERN MAY SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE MORNING BRINGING INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR CIGS TO
TERMINALS AT LEAST THROUGH MID MORNING. DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP LOW
RAIN CHANCES WITH UP TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE ACROSS SWFL TAF SITES.
BREEZY WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 74 89 72 87 / 20 10 0 0
FMY 75 90 73 89 / 20 20 10 0
GIF 74 91 71 88 / 10 20 0 10
SRQ 74 91 73 89 / 20 10 10 0
BKV 73 90 70 87 / 10 10 0 0
SPG 76 90 73 87 / 30 10 10 0
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 3
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...DELERME
DECISION SUPPORT...WYNN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLEMING
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