433
FXUS62 KTBW 240639
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
239 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST OVER THE
INTERIOR AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE VERY LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILL INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA PUSHING INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. THIS COLD
FRONT IS BEING DRAGGED INTO THE AREA BY A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, AND THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, USHERING IN
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS. TODAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY, WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE STILL PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO WORK SOUTHWEST INTO THE INTERIOR AND PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS LIKELY TO BE RAIN FREE TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY OVER THE NATURE
COAST COUNTIES, BUT OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MORNING LOWS THIS WEEKEND IN THE LOW TO MID
60S NORTH, AND MID 60S TO LOW 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. AFTERNOON
MAXIMUMS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, BUT WITH SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S (OR EVEN UPPER 50S OVER THE NATURE COAST),
THE AIR SHOULD FEEL NOTICEABLY DRIER. OTHERWISE, THE DRIER AIR
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CLOSE TO ZERO ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SET BACK UP OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC AS THE COASTAL LOW PULLS
AWAY, ALLOWING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SLOWLY TURN BACK TO SOUTHERLY.
THIS WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE TO MODERATE
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY RAIN FREE ON
MONDAY APART FROM A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR STORMS, THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, AND SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS COVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
SOME AREAS OF MVFR OR PERHAPS PATCHY IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT AND DISSIPATING THROUGH
THE REST OF THE MORNING. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN HOLD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR
STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS RUNNING AT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
TODAY, AND INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND ADVISORY/CAUTIONARY LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING SATURDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, THE DRIER AIR WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES LIMITED THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING IN A
DRIER AIR MASS, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR, AND THEN VERY LITTLE RAIN
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER THIS WEEKEND,
BUT WIDESPREAD CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY IS NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 71 86 68 / 10 0 0 0
FMY 90 73 88 70 / 20 10 10 0
GIF 90 71 87 66 / 20 0 10 0
SRQ 90 72 88 68 / 10 10 10 0
BKV 90 69 86 63 / 10 0 0 0
SPG 89 73 87 71 / 10 10 0 0
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 3
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT
20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
FLEMING
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