649
FXUS62 KTBW 241832
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
232 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
- VERY LIMITED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILL INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
THE PATTERN ALOFT OVER THE REGION FEATURES A LOW OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR
OVER FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THERE IS PLENTY
OF DRIER AIR ALOFT, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE TRAPPED AT THE
LOWER LEVELS, AND THIS IS EVIDENT BOTH IN THE MORNING SOUNDING AND
THE LOWER CLOUDS THAT HAVE LINGERED ACROSS THE PENINSULA FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. JUST A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY WESTWARD FROM
THE EAST COAST AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN,
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES AND A NICE TASTE OF FALL WEATHER. STARTING
TOMORROW MORNING, LOWS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER AND THEN A
FEW DEGREES COOLER STILL EACH MORNING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
WILL STILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 80S, BUT DEW POINTS WILL BE
FALLING, MAKING IT INTO THE 50S/LOWER 60S AND KEEPING CONDITIONS
MORE COMFORTABLE.
MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SET BACK UP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE AND
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WHILE ALSO SLOWLY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
CONTINUING MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND ADDITIONAL LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS A LARGE PATCH
OF LOWER CLOUDS NORTH OF THE TERMINALS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD, SO
WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS AT LEAST FOR TAMPA BAY
AREA TERMINALS. FOR TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE RECURRENCE
OF LOW CLOUDS AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE IN, BUT WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF A SCT DECK FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, WINDS REMAIN
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH EXERCISE CAUTION WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS DRIER AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE LOWER, BUT WIDESPREAD CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY IS
NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 71 86 67 86 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 73 88 69 87 / 10 0 0 0
GIF 71 87 65 87 / 0 10 0 0
SRQ 72 87 68 86 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 69 87 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 73 87 70 86 / 0 0 0 0
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 8
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT
20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
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