438
FXUS62 KTBW 250701
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
301 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- VERY LIMITED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILL INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER OVER THE AREA TODAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND THANKS TO A COLD FRONT THAT HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OVER
FLORIDA. MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE NORTH AND LOW
70S TO THE SOUTH. THE BIG DIFFERENCE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE
THE LOWER DEW POINTS, MAKING CONDITIONS QUITE PLEASANT. RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SUGGESTING NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
COULD DIP DOWN INTO THE UPPER 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. WITH
WIDE SPREAD LOW TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND MAXING OUT IN THE MID
80S.
AS THE NEW WEEK ARRIVES, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT ONCE AGAIN AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST, SHIFTING THE FLOW MORE
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO MOVE OVER THE AREA,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
WILL ALSO BOUNCE BY TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL AS
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS. AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN THROUGH THE
DAY CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
NORTHEASTERLY, ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS REMAIN OVER THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CHOPPY
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
ELEVATED, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TODAY, BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASES OVER THE WEEKEND. RH VALUES WILL ALSO DIP CLOSE TO
CRITICAL LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS DRY AIR MOVES IN, BUT WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN 15MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 86 67 85 66 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 88 69 87 67 / 10 10 0 0
GIF 87 65 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 87 68 86 66 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 86 63 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 87 70 86 70 / 0 0 0 0
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 8
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
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