272
FXUS62 KTBW 251823
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
223 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- VERY LIMITED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILL INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, SOME LOWER CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT
THESE HAVE MOSTLY BROKEN UP/LIFTED. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DRIER AND RELATIVELY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN,
WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND
THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES AND ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
PATCHY LOWER MVFR CIGS LINGER THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE SCATTERING OUT
AND ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY 19Z OR SO. VFR IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY
STARTING TO DIMINISH. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH NO FURTHER HEADLINES EXPECTED,
AND RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BE LOWER WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS DRIER AND
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL BE LOWER, BUT WIDESPREAD CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY IS NOT
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 67 85 66 86 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 69 87 67 86 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 65 86 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 68 86 66 86 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 63 85 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 70 85 70 85 / 0 0 0 0
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 8
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 8
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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