751
FXUS62 KTBW 191830
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
THE PATTERN ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF AND A LARGE LOW SPINNING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF
THE STATE. A RELATIVELY DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS PERSISTS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA, WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE. THESE BREEZY WINDS HAVE ALSO LED TO SOME
FAST-MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING EAST TO WEST ACROSS AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-4, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL STAY OVER
THE STATE BEFORE A CUTOFF LOW FORMS NEAR THE BAHAMAS LATE THIS
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE TO OUR
NORTH, WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THIS WEEKEND AS WELL. OVERALL, WE
STICK WITH OUR COOLER AND DRIER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEK, THEN START
TO GET SOME TEMPERATURE MODERATION AND MOISTURE RETURN THIS WEEKEND
WHEN WE ALSO SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VFR IS
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS CONTINUING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME EACH AFTERNOON, BUT STILL
IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE AND CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS, AND WILL THEN
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN EACH NIGHT. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER
HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ELEVATED WINDS
AND SEAS PERSIST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2026
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND
WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 63 81 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 67 84 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 62 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 64 82 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 56 81 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 67 81 67 82 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
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