059
FXUS62 KTBW 201352
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
952 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 911 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
A BEAUTIFUL MORNING IN PARADISE WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
FAIRLY COOL CONDITIONS. THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND PWS WELL BELOW AN INCH. THIS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB UP INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS, THOUGH
NORTHERN LOCATIONS ALONG THE NATURE COAST MAY STRUGGLE TO GET TO
80 DEGREES. BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH EVENING SURGES
ANTICIPATED. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 60S, WHICH WILL MAKE
CONDITIONS FEEL VERY COMFORTABLE AND PERFECT TO ENJOY THE
OUTDOORS.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS IT REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WE ARE SEEING ANOTHER COOL AND DRY MORNING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS IS
DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A LOW PRESSURE IN THE
ATLANTIC HELPING TO FUNNEL THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER FLORIDA.
THIS PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY RESULTING IN THE DRY
AIR WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES STICKING AROUND. LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 60 DEGREES EVERY MORNING AND HIGHS AROUND 80'S.
BY FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE WE WILL NOT SEE ANY
NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AS IT DOES SO. HOWEVER ONCE IT GETS DOWN
TO THE STALL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE KEYS IT WILL HELP TO RESTRENGTHEN
IT. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUST UP TO 35MPH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 911 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN
PLACE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 82 62 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 84 65 84 67 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 83 62 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 82 64 83 65 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 81 58 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 81 65 82 66 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION....DELERME
DISCUSSION...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...ANDERSON
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