072
FXUS62 KTBW 201908
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
308 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE PENINSULA HAVE BEEN SPONSORED BY
DRY AIRMASS BEING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING FROM THE
CANADIAN BORDER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE IS BUILDING BEHIND A
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
AIDING THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR BEHIND IT ACROSS THE CWA. AS A
RESULT RAIN FREE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE TOUCH COOLER WITH SOME AREAS IN
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST POTENTIALLY GETTING DOWN
TO THE UPPER 40S. BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL WITH EVENING
SURGES POSSIBLE.
ON WEDNESDAY, SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE EVENING.
LONG TERM (THU-MON)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD BUT SHIFTS NORTH SLIGHTLY. THIS
WILL ALLOW EASTERLY FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE AREA GOING INTO
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN, WHICH WILL SUPPORT HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORTUNATELY, RELATIVELY COOLER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THIS TIME. POPS WILL
INCREASE MAINLY INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND SWFL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY SURGES POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTH. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOT
DURING THE DAY WITH NIGHTLY SURGES CLOSER TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTER THAT, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
STATE HELPING TO PICK UP THE WINDS ONCE AGAIN. BY SATURDAY
MORNING, WINDS OVER THE WATER WILL BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAUSING SOME
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT TUE OCT 20 2026
BREEZY WINDS AND RELATIVELY LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES BUT ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WINDS SPEEDS SHOULD
INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 62 82 62 80 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 65 85 67 83 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 61 83 61 81 / 0 10 0 0
SRQ 63 83 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 56 82 57 79 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 65 82 65 80 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DELERME
DECISION SUPPORT...ANDERSON
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