944
FXUS62 KTBW 212327
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
727 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MAINLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
- A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS
PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. CONUS U/A PATTERN REMAINS RATHER
AMPLIFIED WITH A CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE THE SW U.S., STRONG W/C U.S.
RIDGE, AND A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE E SEABOARD, WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE E U.S. EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE STATE
MAINTAINING OCCASIONALLY BREEZY E/NE WINDS AND GENERALLY DRY, STABLE
CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LOCALLY. LATEST REGIONAL ACARS
SOUNDINGS AND MESO-ANALYSIS SHOW PWATS REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 1 INCH,
OR JUST ABOVE THE 25TH PERCENTILE, INDICATIVE OF THE RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR MASS THAT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
MORNING LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH, AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE LOWER/MID 80S
SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
THE PATTERN ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN
U.S./MEXICO WITH A LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TROUGHING
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OVER FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS
SETTLED NORTH OF THE STATE WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, A CUTOFF LOW TRIES TO FORM SOUTH OF THE
REGION BEFORE OPENING UP AND MOVING NORTHEAST WHILE A SURFACE LOW
ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE BAHAMAS.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WILL ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE. FOR THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA, THIS WILL MEAN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES MAINLY
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA) AND LOWS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS WELL BUT THEN INCREASE
BY A FEW DEGREES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
DRY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY NE FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS TERMINALS, OCCASIONALLY BREEZY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS DURING THE
DAYTIME, BUT WILL INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION AND CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA EACH NIGHT. STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL ONCE
AGAIN INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS, WITH SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
EXPECTED, AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 62 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 65 83 64 84 / 0 0 0 0
GIF 61 82 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 62 81 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 55 80 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 67 80 66 81 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...WYNN
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