050
FXUS62 KTBW 220452
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1252 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
HIGH AMPLITUDE U/L PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH A STRONG U/L TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S., STRONG RIDGING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S., AND AND A RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AN U/L DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE OVER THE RIDGE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S., INDUCING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
GULF/FLORIDA STRAITS AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK EAST OF
FLORIDA AS AN U/L RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IN ITS WAKE.
AT THE SURFACE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH WILL EXTEND DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
FLORIDA. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH AS THE U/L ENERGY FROM THE DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW
OVERRIDES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS
WILL CREATE GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DUE TO SHOWERS ADVECTING ONSHORE
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA OFF THE
ATLANTIC IN THE NORTHEAST FLOW. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES INLAND INTO A DRIER MORE STABLE AIRMASS
OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS, HOWEVER THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH. THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING.
AS FAR AS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER GOES, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND THE INTERIOR WHERE SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS. EARLY NEXT WEEK, SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY DURING
THE DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURE
EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS, WITH LOWER TO
MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE LOWS
IN THE 60S THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
CAUTIONARY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TODAY AND
FRIDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADVISORY
LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION, AND CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. THE OFFSHORE WIND FLOW
WILL ALSO CAUSE TIDES TO RUN BELOW ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2026
MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR
CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 MPH. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RECOVER A BIT ON FRIDAY AND KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 61 81 63 / 0 0 0 0
FMY 83 64 84 67 / 0 0 10 0
GIF 82 60 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
SRQ 81 62 82 65 / 0 0 0 0
BKV 80 56 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
SPG 80 64 80 66 / 0 0 0 0
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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